A forecasting comparison of some var techniques

Higher dimensional multivariate time series models suffer from the problem of over-parametrisation which impairs their forecasting performance. Starting from such unrestricted vector autoregressive models the paper discusses two ways to cope with this difficulty. The first approach reduces the number of free parameters by applying a subset modelling strategy. The second approach takes a Bayesian point of view by formulating ‘priors’ which are then combined with sample information, but leaving the original specification unaltered. Using Austrian quarterly macroeconomic time series a comparative study is undertaken by running alternative forecasting exercises. Both methods improve out-of-sample forecasting performance substantially at the cost of some bias in ex-post simulations. Comparing the ex-ante predictions of the two approaches, the former does better at short horizons whereas the latter gains as the forecast horizon lengthens.     

European tourism management

European governments must recognize the economic significance of the tourism industry to Europe. Dr Klaus Edelmann, Professor at the Swiss School of Tourism Management, describes how modern marketing methods and EEC consensus policies must be adopted to combat increasing competition from outside Europe and expand the domestic market.     

Major problems of tourism growth in developing countries

The following paper is an attempt to analyse the present-day tourist relationship between industrial nations and Developing Countries. It furthermore describes predictable conflict situations which may arise if these relations are subject to excessive physical and psychological strains or if the international division of labor in the field of “Vacation production” becomes unbalanced.     

Patrick Rössler nach Erfurt berufen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Regional policy in the EC

On December 31, 1973 ends the first phase of the gradual realisation of an economic and monetary union which the EC-states undertook to form between themselves¹. Till then the Ministerial Council will still have to take a number of basic decisions, which are regarded as essential for a succesful conclusion of the first phase.